♪ ♪ the hip-hop half time show, to the rams hollywood ending, the city of los angeles was the big winner of super bowl lvi, the question is this what it means to be california dreaming? plus, new developments in the supreme court nomination process. with sources telling nbc news that the short list has dwindled to three. the question is, who are the finalists? and warnings, from the biden

administration, grow louder, concerning a possible russian invasion of ukraine. the question is, what's happening behind the scenes to find a last-ditch diplomatic solution? it's "way too early" for this. good morning, and welcome to "way too early." the show that had never, ever forgotten about dre, i'm jonathan lemire on this monday, february 14th. happy valentine's day. let's start with the news, the los angeles rams are super bowl champions, beating the cincinnati bengals 23-20 last night, to earn the franchise's first nfl title since the 1999 season, and the first represented l.a. since 1951. we'll have all of the highlights from the big game, ahead in sports a little later on. a strong diplomatic push was under way over the weekend, as the u.s. escalates its warning

that russia may invade ukraine at any day. president joe biden spoke to ukrainian president zelensky by phone yesterday reaffirming the u.s. and its allies would respond quote swiftly and decisively, if there's an invasion. according to the white house, the two leaders agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy, and deterrence, in response to russia's military build upon ukraine's border. the call to glenn ski after biden again spoke with russian pred vladimir putin which did not result in any break through. this as the u.s. is concerned that russia will stage an incident in the coming days that will create a false pretext for an invasion. >> we cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window, and an invasion could begin, a major military action, could begin, by russia in ukraine any day now, this coming week before the end of

the olympics, of course it could take place after the end of the olympics, or it is still possible, we believe that russia could choose the diplomatic path, but the way they built up their forces and the way they maneuvered things in place makes it a distinct possibility there will be major military action very soon. >> meanwhile, some airlines have canceled or diverted flights to ukraine, and asian stock markets fell today, while oil prices rose amid concerns the possible russian invasion. all this as moscow continues with its military buildup now massing 130,000 troops along ukraine's border according to the associated press. joining us live from kyiv, ukraine, nbc news correspondent erin mclaughlin, thank you very much for being here. give us the latest on the ground there in ukraine after president biden's call with president zelensky and some reports still say the ukrainian president is still downplaying threats of a russian invasion, which is stark contrast to the ominous growing

warnings we're hearing from the u.s. >> well, that's right, jonathan, president zelensky has long been seen to be downplaying this threat. on saturday, saying that ukraine has a different intelligence assessment, saying that he's working to avoid panic, to keep the situation calm, and to that effect, in the course of that phone conversation, with president biden, last night, inviting president biden here to kyiv saying it would go a long way to de-escalate the situation. now of course a visit of president biden to kyiv seems unlikely especially considering the united states has been withdrawing its diplomats, most of its diplomative staff from the embassy here, in kyiv, as have a host of other countries, that combined with the dutch airliner klm suspending its flights to ukraine, as well as a number of private jets seen leaving ukraine as well, leaving

ukrainians to wonder if they're the ones being sanctioned in all of this, if they're the ones paying the highest price, at least the you ukrainians that i have been speaking to. now it is expected to be a key topic of conversation today between ukrainian president, and german chancellor schultz expected in kooefb for that meeting and germany has come under scathing criticism in ukraine for its refusal to provide lethal aid to ukraine as well as its refusal to outright cancel the nord stream 2 pipeline project, labelled a geo plim weapon here in kyiv, seen as giving outside influence to the kremlin. all of that expected to be the topic of a press conference here in kyiv later today, jonathan. >> u.s. officials certainly signalled that a visit from president biden, particularly any time soon, not on the table. and the timetable seems to be perhaps accelerated. the u.s. officials for a long time thought that putin wouldn't

move in, before the end of the olympics, for fear of alienating beijing. now, they're saying something slightly different. with that, with an invasion perhaps possible at any moment, tell us what you're seeing there, about the preparedness of the ukrainian troops. >> well, in terms of the ukrainian people, at least this weekend, it was very much business as usual, people have been going about their normal daily lives, you don't see any signs of panic, you don't see anyone going to the grocery store. the grocery stores are all stocked, no one lining up to get gas, we have spoken to some ukrainians who have moved their children out of kyiv but for the most part they're staying calm and quietly preparing for this potential invasion. people here are taking this western intelligence seriously as is the you rain oosh ukrainian military, saying they have noted this massive buildup, the level of preparedness of the

russian forces, on three sides of the border, and they do are preparing accordingly. jonathan? >> nbc's erin mclaughlin, life in kyiv, thank you so much. and we will have more on this story a little later in the show, including an appearance from richard haas president for the council on foreign relations. elsewhere a u.s. canada border crossing is back open this morning, after a blockade of protesting truckers kept it closed for nearly a week. the ambassador bridge is a key trade point between ontario, canada, and detroit, michigan. and the six-day stoppage cost millions of dollars in trade, and disrupted already shaky supply chains. windsor police chief pam mizuno told the reporters sunday before the bridge had been reopened that there were 25 to 30 arrests and no one had been injured as a result of any police interaction. the protests began late last month when a group of truck drivers angry with covid vaccine mandates parked by canada's parliament and refused to leave. those protests eventually

expanded to include the bridge convoy. canadian prime minister justin trudeau says everything is on the table when asked how the government will handle the protesters. right wing groups in the u.s. have taken up the truckers' cause. conservative outlets have highlighted their story and republican lawmakers have begun to vocally support them. >> the canadian truckers are heroes. they are patriots. and they are marching for your freedom and for my freedom. >> and i hope the trucker does come to america, i hope this clog up cities. >> well, there you go. similar protests have spread as far as europe. and new zealand. as the country's pandemic fatigue grow, the white house is weighing when and how to begin lifting restrictions, nbc news reports the biden administration began holding a listening tour last month, with outside experts and lawmakers, on a new strategy to handle the coronavirus. administration officials announced the development of a new covid strategy wednesday, saying it was part of biden's

efforts to move the country into a new phase of living with the pandemic. the effort comes as a growing number of governors are moving forward on rescinding their mask mandates, and administration officials say though moves were expect and the federal government will follow with its own announcements in due time. for the second time, the supreme court has denied a request from a group of new york city public schoolteachers to block a vaccine mandate for employees. according to that appeal, the teachers sought an emergency injunction, because they believe their religious freedoms were violated. their challenge was directed to justice sonja sotomayor who handles cases from the new york region. she did not offer any explanation for rejecting the appeal, which is standard on the high court. also, in what may be a major setback in the covid vaccination effort, pfizer is delaying its application for fda approval of its vaccine for children under five years old. that delay will now be until at least early april. the drug maker says it's

postponing its quest to gather more data of the effectiveness of a third dose. pfizer believes three dose, quote, may provide a higher level of protection in this age group. the delay of course is a blow to parents who are anxiously awaiting the chance to vaccinate their children against covid. this is the last age group in the u.s. that is not yet eligible for vaccination. still ahead, the rams are super bowl champs, thanks to a late dramatic drive. we've got a complete breakdown of the big game ahead in sports. plus, as a former long-time senator, president biden is no stranger to battles over the supreme court. only this time, he's the one tapping a candidate. how his experience on capitol hill is shaping that decision. those stories and a check on the weather when we come right back. e .

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wisconsin supreme court is allowing a new ban on ballot drop boxes to go into effect for the state's upcoming spring elections. the court ruled 4-3 on the decision friday. barring the use of the drop boxes starting in april. they can still be used for this week's primary elections. drop boxes were critical during the 2020 election because of the pandemic of the lawsuit was brought by two milwaukee men and is backed about aconservative organization in the state. it comes as republicans are trying to restrict mail-in voting across the country. senator lujan of new mexico says he is recovering well from a stroke he suffered late last month. the democratic senator spoke in a video released yesterday. >> i'm doing well. i'm strong. i'm back on the road to recovery. and i'm going to make a full recovery and i will walk out of this and beat this and be stronger once i come out. now i have happy to report i

will be back on the floor of the united states senate in a few short weeks to vote on important legislation and to consider a supreme court nominee. >> until he returns in person, democrat does not have the 50 votes needed to confirm a supreme court nominee on a party line vote. that would give republicans potential veto power over biden's choice. and president biden is facing conflicting pressures from lawmakers, as he reviews potential supreme court nominees to fill that vacancy and replace retiring justice stephen breyer and the interviews could begin as early as this week. in a sitdown to air on sunday with nbc news lester holt, president biden said he is taking a quote deep dive on about four people. however, sources are now telling nbc news the list is actually only three candidates deep. and comprises ketanji brown

jackson, deandre krueger and michelle childs, a handful of republicans including lindsey graham could be the key to bipartisanship in the confirmation. graham has been open about his support for fellow south carolinian childs if she were to be nominated. fbi background checks and the formal vetting process are reportedly now ongoing. of course, senator lujan returns, they wouldn't need a republican vote and it wouldn't have to be bipartisan and president biden during the campaign vowed to appoint a black woman for the first time to fill the supreme court seat. a huge weekend in sports from beijing to los angeles. we have the latest on the olympics controversy as the nfl crowns a new champion. "way too early" is coming right back. champion. "way too early" is coming right "way too early" is coming right back to relieve occasional nerve aches, weakness and discomfort. try nervivenerve relief.

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second and goal. pass. caught. got it. touchdown. >> the rams capping a 79-yard drive, late in the fourth quarter, with that one yard touchdown reception for couper kupp and what would be the game-winning score against the bengals in last night's super bowl. los angeles was aided on the drive by a flurry of yellow flags in the final two minutes after only two were thrown over the first 58. penalties against cincinnati on three consecutive plays helped put the rams into position for that go-ahead touchdown, and will ultimately determine this year's nfl champion. that, and the offensive effort by kupp who had four receptions for 39 yards, and a clutch 7-yard run to convert a fourth quarter down during that championship drive. kupp adds super bowl mvp po to the offensive player of the year and finishes the game last night with eight receptions for 92

yards and two touchdowns, the best receiver in football, he had a spectacular season. despite being double teamed much of the way after fellow wideout owe bell bep beckham jr. who scored the second touchdown, went out with a knee injury in the second quarter made kupp all the more impressive and the rams defense applied nonstep pressure to the bengals in the second half and sacked joe burrow, a super bowl tying record seven times. burrow did have almost a minute and a half at the end of regulation to at least get cincinnati into field goal range, down three, and they've got a kicker, but the bengals failed on three attempts to get one yard from the rams 49. >> fourth and one. calling the defense. right there. hoping to go. running in the back field.

burrow. trying to keep it going. incomplete. it looked like he might have had a shot to make the grab but the rams are running down to celebrate, with a defensive play. >> the bengals needed only one more first down to get on the edge of the field goal range but it was not to be. one of l.a.'s biggest stars on the other side of the ball, aaron donald perhaps the best defensive player in football, got to burrow forcing an errant pass and with it a turnover on downs and the rams get possession with under a minute to go and take a knee to round out the clock and begin celebrating their championship. los angeles is now the second team in a row to win the super bowl at their home stadium, after tampa bay became the first just a year ago. this is a close game and a compelling game, not a very well played game. kind of sloppy. in the second half in particular. they were pretty rough. but congrats to the rams. they went all in. they bet big on this season and

paid off. and condolences to the bengals and their fans. it's not too early to start looking ahead to super bowl lvii where the chiefs and bills open as the early favorites. the odds makers have kansas city at 13-2, followed by buffalo at 7-1. and the champion rams follow a 10-1 while joe burrow and the bengals will be back, they're 12-1. tom brady-less buccaneers are 18-1 while the new england patriots sit at 25-1. and both the texans and jets are 200-1 to win next year's super bowl which will be held in glendale, arizona. and while the nfl celebrates its new champion, there's still a dark shadow being cast over the league's lack of diversity, particularly at the head coaching position, something addressed by president biden in the interview with lester holt that aired during yesterday's pre-game show. >> i had no idea that a league that is made up of so many athletes of color, as well as so

diverse, that there's not enough african american qualified coaches to manage these nfl teams, it just seems to be, it's a standard that they want to live up to, i know it's not a requirement of law, but it's a requirement of some i guess genetic decency. >> and now the controversy at the winter olympics involving russian figure skating star kamila valiyeva. the 15-year-old has now been cleared to compete in this week's individual event. despite failing a drug test in december. before the games. the court of arbitration for the sport released its rulings less than 12 hours after a quickly-arranged hearing yesterday saying that she does not need to be provisionally suspended ahead of a full investigation. according to the a. p., the court gave her a favorable decision in part because she's a minor, and known in olympic jargon as a protected person, and is subject to different rules from an adult athlete. it sets her up for an attempt at

a second gold medal in beijing. now, kamila valiyeva and her fellow russian skaters can also aim for the first podium sweep of the women's figure skating in olympic history. the event starts the short program tomorrow and concludes thursday with the free skate. now it's time for the weather and bill karins, usually when the super bowl ends, we start thinking about baseball and spring training and with the lockout, who knows when we will get that. it is potentially a bleak moment on the sports landscape. how are you doing, bill? >> doing all right. typical monday, tired after staying up to watch the super bowl like everything else and entertaining great game. great playoffs this year so. let's get into the forecast this weekend, and it starts kind of quiet, and wintry, in some areas, especially up around boston and cape cod, and still snowing this morning, snowing in boston, on and off the last 24 hours straight and this is after a really cold start to your day, too. and now, as we go throughout the day, we will watch these wind chill values improve, but right now, it's frigid, we're at 8 in boston, and new york city, with

a wind chill of 5. negative 2 in pittsburgh. and our friends in minneapolis are negative 3. we're cold from the midwest to the northeast. this week we have a big storm that will form in the middle of the country starting wednesday. kind of quiet, good travel day today. notice the northwest is where that storm begins, and not a really big deal today, light snow on wednesday, into the rockies, and then late wednesday, and especially thursday, watch out in the middle of the country, kansas city, st. louis, chicago, you're going to have messy weather to deal with. snow, sleet, rain, maybe severe weather. by friday, that storm exits the east coast, so that's good news there. so as far as your valentine's day goes, here you go, jonathan. romance, missouri, 58 degrees today. flowersville, florida, lovely p. a., not bad, cold 32 and one of my favorites, sweetheart city, wisconsin, yes, that is a real place. >> sweetheart city, wisconsin. bill karins, well done with the valentine's day-themed forecast. and happy valentine's day to you, sir. still ahead, by his own

admission president biden suffered a shellacking during the midterms in 2010, what's his advice to democrats to avoid the same fate this november? lee an caldwell joins us to talk about that. and before we go to break, we want to know, why are you awake? email your reasons to "way too early." or tweet me. or tweet me. deon, hand it over. now how does that make you feel? like a part of me is missing. gabrielle? this old spice fiji hand and body lotion has me smoother than ever. that's what it does. super emma just about sleeps in her cape. but when we realized she was battling sensitive skin, we switched to tide hygienic clean free. it's gentle on her skin, and out cleans our old free detergent. tide hygienic clean free. hypoallergenic and safe for sensitive skin.

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welcome back to "way too early." it's 5:30 a.m. on the east coast, 2:30 out west. i'm jonathan lemire. "the new york times" reports that rudy giuliani is now in talks with the january 6th committee about testifying. giuliani was subpoenaed last month for his work leading the effort to get the 2020 election overturned. as donald trump's former lawyer, it's unclear to what extent giuliani may try to claim attorney-client privilege. the committee would not comment on negotiations but said giuliani was allowed to reschedule a deposition that was set for last week. giuliani's lawyer also declined to comment. and in a private meeting last week, former president barack obama advised house democrats to recognize the pain and struggle american families are experiencing as lawmakers are out on the campaign trail this year. in the virtual meeting on thursday, obama told democrats that it's been a tough couple of years for americans who have

navigated the pandemic, interrupted schooling, and inflation. he encouraged democrats to connect with voters and avoid focusing on what the party has been unable to accomplish. joining us now, to talk about this, and so much more, nbc news capitol correspondent leigh ann caldwell. so glad you're here. empathy and emotion we know are president biden's strong suits but we've seen lawmakers use him on the campaign trail, if they were to follow president obama's strategy of empathizing with the american public. >> yes, it's a great question, and first messaging goal was for all of these members to feel people's pain which is also something that is difficult to do for some of these members, considering that it's a democratic congress, and a democratic president, and it still is acknowledging that things don't feel great, regarding the economy, regarding covid, and other things, so president obama, in a closed

door meeting last week, he said that's what members need to do. they can't dismiss people's pain, they need to acknowledge it, and highlight the accomplishments like the bipartisan infrastructure bill, like the partisan covid relief bill that they were able to do, and just like you said, not focus on the things they haven't been able to accomplish. and that message has really taken off, for example, speaker pelosi was on the sunday shows yesterday, she said democrats biggest strength is empathy, being able to feel what other people are feeling, and going through, and there was an ad by rafael warnof of georgia, doing a 60 second ad where that is exactly what he did, he said i know people are hurting out there, i'm a pastor and if they have president biden on the campaign trail, it will depend district to district and what the mood is of that district and if it will benefit, but i think

that most democrats having a knowledged that the party is better united than divided and so president biden is one of them, he's the leader of the party, even though his poll ratings are not great right now but they're all in it together jonathan. >> so the escalating crisis between russia and ukraine obviously dominating so many of the headlines right now, but here at home, president biden has a key decision, in terms of choosing a supreme court nominee. he said over the weekend interviews are about to begin, we know background checks are under way. talk to us about this choice, and what it could mean for democrats going forward in this year's midterms. >> yes, this is something that democrats think is going to unite the party. something that they can celebrate, that they can all get behind, and something that will be good for the party. it will be an historic pick, the first black woman, and president biden has said, last week, that, or he said in the super bowl interview, that there's about

four people that he is considering, well, our sources tell us it is actually three, and for the first time, the white house acknowledged to nbc late last week that ketanji brown jackson, and we have mi sheld childs and leondra kruger, probably the third person, and this is going to be something that president biden is going to be able to highlight over and over again, something on the campaign trail, and it could get bipartisan support. president biden campaigned on bipartisanship, on bringing the country together, and there's at least one of those candidates, michelle childs, the republican delegation is also supporting her and there are a couple of republicans that they think they will be able to get whoever the nominee is, and so this could be

a good moment for the republican party, and we will see what republicans have chosen to do, and they have not chosen yet to fight aggressively but we are still waiting for this nomination. >> the president said it would come by the end of february. that is two weeks to go. >> yes. >> thank you so much. and still ahead, from larry david, to arnold schwarzenegger, we'll look at the star power and cash or crypto behind some of the biggest super bowl ads. that and plus some of the other stories driving your business day when we come right back. bu day when we come right back.

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ukraine sent investors flocking to seemingly safer assets. give us a sense of what we could expect this week. >> a lot of turbulence, jonathan. volatility, i would say. especially if we take what we've had in europe this morning. which was a very heavy early morning trading session. all major forces or indexes down 1.5 to 3.5% in the equities front of the u.s. features indicating a negative open on wall street as well, at some point down 250 points. and as you mentioned toward the end of last week, we saw real declines, of course, what jake sullivan said, with the comments regarding russia's potential invasion of ukraine, it is weighing heavy on the markets today, geopolitical tensions looming large but also what the fed is doing, the market still digesting that in terms of rate hike increases. if you're looking for interesting plays in the market, wti crude surging this week on

the back of the tensions and some say $100 per barrel pretty soon so you're seeing a flight to safety, investors putting money in gold for the first time in quite a while and in fact, focusing on government bonds and people bargain hunting with goldman sachs this morning, talking about buying the dip. >> lots of red on that board. let's talk about the green. cold hard crash. this year, a highly coveted 30-second spot on nbc's super bowl tell cast cost up to $7 million. that's up from the average price of $5.6 million a year ago. which was on cbs. what do you think? for these companies who shelled out that kind of money, was that a good deal? >> it is surprisingly, can you believe it, a good deal. those 30 second spots at around $7 million each, they sold out, jonathan, because all eyes are on the super bowl, every year, and it's the one sure-fire bet for a lot of advertisers out there, and increasingly fragmented media market. most people get their information from their phones

now, so the idea of media television being somewhere that people gather around, to watch ads, that is something that the advertisers are still interested in, when it comes to the super bowl. and in terms of the ad revenue made by the family network we're part of, nbc, last year, it is somewhere around $30 million, according to the media research firms so it is one of those times of year where eyes are glued to the tv screen. >> not much in the way of social justice, not just in the commercials, and in the celebrities. >> thank you. and to the other big part of the game, dr. dre, snoop dog, y j. blige, and kendrick lamar, paying homage to compton and other l.a. neighborhoods with recreations of the compton courthouse as well as a map of that section of los angeles, on the stadium floor. and cameos alongside the stars and played a few of the biggest

hits. before the performance, it was rumored that eminem asked to take a knee in support of former nfl quarterback colin kaepernick and he did it anyway and eventually knelt at the end of his song. a league representative told the new york post that players have been taking knees since 2016 and without sanctions, he would not be held to a different standard. the half time show aimed directly at gen-x. still ahead, the president says he will respond quote swiftly and decisively if russia invades ukraine, but what does that mean? that mean ys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people are taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ e*trade now from morgan stanley. are you one of he millions of americans who experience occasional bloating, gas, or abdominal discomfort? taking align can help.

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the fact is that we think it is an assault on ukraine is an assault on democracy, and that we understand the loss of life, the damage, the collateral damage to civilians, to military, and the rest, are

severe, if he decides to invade. >> that was house speaker nancy pelosi with a pointed message to russia, an assault on ukraine is an assault on democracy. with president biden ruling out american troops in ukraine, the white house is focused on sanctions and diplomacy to head off a possible russian invasion. joining us now president of the council on foreign relations and author of the book "the world, a brief introduction" richard haas, we appreciate you being here, this morning, and the biden administration has been working for weeks trying to ease this crisis, through diplomacy. we heard from jake sullivan on friday, this is ominous language, talking about an accelerated timetable of a possible invasion, maybe not waiting for the end of the olympics. is there still a chance diplomacy can work here? >> well, sure, as yogi berra, once said, it ain't over until it's over, and diplomacy could work, but it's up to putin to

decide if he prefers diplomacy to using military force or what he is doing now, gathering and threatening with military force. we don't control that. all we can do is give him a serious option and make it from his point of view, we hope, more than the alternative of sanctions and nato. >> do we think it is enough of a threat to ward off possible incursion from putin? >> probably not. and again, that's why we've done the mix, things like strengthening nato, it may not be, and that's why putin enjoys tremendous advantages here, beginning with geography, he's got this massive stake, in as he sees it, in ukraine, so it's not clear we can alter his calculus in ways that we are prepared to do. we also got to remember, ukraine is not the only strategic concern we have in the world.

we've also got major concerns in asia, with china, we've got continuing concerns in the middle east, and we've obviously got preoccupations at home so there is no way we can go quote-unquote all in including not sending u.s. forces, and there would be no domestic support and given the geography. >> you mentioned china, they're watching the situation for perhaps lessons learned for what could happen to taiwan down the road. what about the time able and we've heard about the olympics and the national security adviser says maybe that is not going to be a factor and just concerning the size of the troop buildup, how long can putin keep his forces there? in other words how long is the window here for a possible invasion? is the clock ticking? >> i think putin has more time than we think. first of all, i agree with jake sullivan, i don't think the olympics are sackrosanct and the

olympics have been such a bust from china's point of view and it is not the greatest showcase they wanted and if it is overshadowed at this point, i don't think it is any big what,0 troops mobilized. he could take it down to 50,000 and still have more than enough to go in. again, jonathan, it is possible he may be thinking of smaller military actions. what he is doing now, kind of laying siege to ukraine to destabilize the country economically. it is interesting. zelensky, the president of ukraine, is calling for calm. i think he is worried about the country economically and politically being destabilized by putin. >> we are going to do a hard turn here. you are, of course, like me a big nfl fan, though neither of our teams were near the super bowl last night.

but what did you make of the game? >> first of all, i have my tie on in honor of the rams. good for them. surprisingly good defensive game i thought for both games. cooper kupp plays the end position better than anybody else. one ex-giant, obj, odell beckham jr, clearly outplayed eli apple, who was involved in almost all of the touchdowns on the other side of the field. >> it doesn't take much of a bar to say you played better than eli apple. i guess we will say this. the rams went all in, something we don't always see for an nfl team. hey, we are trading draft picks, getting a collection of stars. they knew the window was a year or two at most, but it paid off. kudos to them, yeah in. >> an interesting strategy. giving up round picks and talent now and being smart about late-round picks. it says to me it is important to lot of the teams and the general manager and scouts.

>> coach was better yesterday. good game. not a great game, good game. richard haass, we appreciate you being here. we will talk to you again for certain. earlier in the show we asked you all this kwek. why are you away? kira writes, i'm up way too early because i haven't been to bed yet. kid moved back home late last night and my prediction of a bengals win didn't occur. >> jennifer is up early making 30 valentines for her kid's classmates. >> my youngest son, mario theme for those in his second grade class. mary says, up too early, walking the beach in puerto rico. she is on a family vacation for her sister's 60th birthday.

that sounds delightful and likely warmer than here in the northeast. up next, a look at the "axios: 1 big thing." coming up on "morning joe," more on the escalating crisis in eastern year. we will hear from former ambassador to ukraine, bill taylor. plus, super bowl lvi in the books but the nfl culture war is still waging. that conversation is still ahead. "morning joe" just a few minutes away. joe" just a few minutes away try align, the pros in digestive health. what do you think healthier looks like? cvs can help you support your nutrition, sleep, immune system, energy ...even skin. so healthier can look a lot like...you. cvs. healthier happens together. if you have type 2 diabetes or high blood pressure... ...you're a target for... ...chronic kidney disease.

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♪♪ ♪ joining us now to look at "axios" a.m., the co-founder of "axios," michael allen. mike, happy valentine's day. what is the "axios: 1 big thing" for this morning? >> happy valentine's day to you and your viewers. the "axios: 1 big thing" is the u.s. needs a covid forecast, so everybody is frustrated about the uncertainty about mask rules, about do you go to school, do you go to work, and a growing body of experts is telling "axios" we need something like a weather

forecast. so when bill karins tells me what it is going to be like, i'm willing to put up with it because i understand it and see it coming. neither of those happen with covid. so we talked to a variety of experts who said that you could look at hospital rates, icu rates, vaccination rates, case loads. that from those you could project something reliable to help people know what kind of decisions to make about their schools, their work, their other organizations, their personal lives. >> certainly some uncertain messaging, right, where it seems some states have gotten ahead of the federal government. we heard from president biden say over the weekend, look, they're following the science and the federal guidelines could change in due course but no timetable set yet. mike, let's shift gears here. there's been a rise of these disturbing incidences. an anti-semitic symbol was found inside the auchlt embassy in

bulgaria last month. what can you tell us about this? >> "axios's" hans nichols learned about this. this disturbing symbol was found in purple ink on a window shade. jonathan, here is the super important part, is it was in a secure area of the embassy. that's why it is even more disturbing to state department officials. ned price, state department spokesman, told "axios" the state department takes it extremely seriously, that the state department stands against any acts of bias in the workplace, which ned price says it appears to be. he said this is a repugnant symbol, everything against that -- that their building is working against. >> repugnant is the word for it. mike, let's turn to the fact the day after super bowl is called super bowl monday. it is one of the year's least productive workdays and could cost employers billions.

i want you to know i stayed up a little bit last night but i'm still bringing my a game. what can you tell us about the rest of the country? >> i was noticing you weren't slacking off. you are bright eyed and bushy tailed. for a lot of people the combination of super monday and valentine's day day will be a double distraction in the workplace. cincinnati schools, which were anticipating a celebration which they ain't going to get, are out today both in the city and in a number of suburbs. that's a little window into the fact there's been a push over the years to make super bowl monday a holiday. now, why does this matter? so much lost productivity, also even when you don't have valentine's day to race out to, a lot of people don't show up. those who do maybe spend a couple of hours gabbing, and so some people are saying maybe we should just make it a holiday. reality check.

of course, federal holidays are added only very rarely, for momentous occasions. keep in mind, a lot of people celebrate halloween, a lot of people celebrate valentine's day but you still have to show up for work. >> cincinnati schools were off today, win or lose. sadly, the young bengals' fans can stay home to com miss rate. i will say that the nfl season keeps expanding. there's talk if they add an 18th game, which is rumored, it would push super bowl one more week which would make super bowl monday president's day. thank you for being here. thanks to all of you for getting up way too early with us on super bowl monday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. this is the 15th play of the drive. four runs. ten passes. second and goal. pass. caught! got it.